Drought Drivers, Projection and Effects on Cereal Yields and Smallholder Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies in Makueni County, Kenya

Abstract

Increasing frequency and severity of drought is a major challenge to rain-fed cereal production in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands globally. Frequent and severe droughts affect cereal production and food security resulting in increased vulnerability, malnutrition and even human deaths in the affected regions in Kenya. The specific objectives of the study were to: project drought trends in Makueni County between 2024 to 2054; determine the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on occurrence and nature of droughts; examine the effect of drought on cereal yields; find out the drought adaptations practiced in Makueni County and evaluate outcomes of drought adaptation strategies among smallholder cereal farmers in Makueni County. The study adopted Explanatory Sequential Mixed Methods Research Design. Five data sets were used in the study: Rainfall data (1990 to 2020), Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures data (1990 to 2020), cereal data (1990 to 2020), household data (N=225) and key informants (N=16). Extraction from secondary sources, content analysis, triangulation, survey and key informant interviews were used in data collection. Standardized Precipitation Index, Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average Models, Coefficient of determination Pearson’s r and descriptive techniques were used in data analysis. There were erratic, unpredictable and fluctuating rainfall patterns accompanied by 20 episodes of near-normal droughts, 5 mild droughts and 3 severe droughts between 1990 and 2020. An increasing trend of seasonal droughts was projected due to declining March-April-May seasonal rainfall. An upward trend in October-November-December seasonal rainfall was projected from 2024 to 2054. Sea Surface Temperatures in Equatorial Western Indian Ocean and Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean influence occurrence of drought in Makueni County whereby R2 values of 0.580 (58%) and 0.674 (67.4%) were established, respectively. There was a significant, positive correlation between rainfall and sorghum, finger millet and maize yields. More females than men adapted to droughts through use of Indigenous Knowledge: drought prediction and monitoring (61%), bio-control of weeds (57%), use of farm manure (54%), supplementary irrigation (51%) and early planting of seeds (51%). Most of the smallholder farmers who adopted small farm sizes for sorghum (43%), finger millet (42%) and maize (60%) recorded low yields between 1 and 10 bags. Information and data generated by the study are expected to result in improvement in drought adaptation policy formulation and adaptive capacity of the smallholder cereal farmers hence improvement in food production and security.