Factors influencing the rise in insecurity in Gudele Payam in Juba, South Sudan

Abstract

This study investigated the factors influencing the rise of insecurity in Gudele Payam, Juba City, South Sudan. Gudele Payam has experienced increasing crime levels, threatening residents’ safety and social stability, yet prior research on South Sudan’s security lacks specific analysis of localized drivers, particularly economic and socio-cultural factors in this post-conflict, peri-urban context. This study sought to identify and map insecurity incidents, examine the economic and socio-cultural factors driving their increase, and evaluate residents’ coping mechanisms in Gudele Payam amid rising threats. The study was Conducted in Gudele Payam’s quarter councils selected for their size, mix of fonnal and informal structures, and high insecurity rates. The research was guided by the broken windows theory, viewing the environment as key to social cohesion and control. Stratified random and purposive sampling selected participants, with data collected via interviews due to low literacy levels. Quantitative data were processed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software to generate descriptive statistics, including frequency tables illustrating factors driving insecurity. Findings showed Gudele Payam faced high incidents of theft (55%), robbery (52%), assault (43%), and drug-related insecurities (38%), with hotspots mapped in dense, poorly lit areas. Economic factors like unemployment (72%), poverty (68%), and informal markets (61%) significantly contributed to insecurity. Socio-cultural factors, including breakdown of traditional values (59%), influx of non-natives (53%), and weak community cohesion (47%), also fueled the rise. Coping mechanisms included vigilante groups (4l%) and religious/traditional authorities (32%), though 27% felt helpless. Conclusions are: (1) varied insecurity types and hotspots demand targeted policing; (2) economic hardship drives crime, needing job creation; (3) socio-cultural fragmentation worsens insecurity, requiring cohesion efforts; and (4) limited coping strategies highlight the need for enhanced security support. The study provided a comprehensive understanding of insecurity factors in Gudele Payam, informing targeted strategies to reduce it and enhance safety. Recommendations included community-based prevention programs, economic opportunities, strengthened social cohesion, and improved local security capacity, contributing to residents’ well-being.